One thing I have to start eliminating is the instacall without the nuts. On this hand, I nearly instacalled the river bet. On the flop, I put him on an overpair, like 88 or something like that. But would 88 really shove on me on the river? You'd have to be a real donkey to do that. But here we are - an instacall with the worst hand. Why can't I think these things through?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2800329
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
JPO4 - final hand
A week ago I played in a local radio show's poker tournament. It was held at the Borgata. The field was pretty tight - at least at the single table I played at. Most things were uneventful - until the final hand, which I'm still thinking about.
Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante
I have 14,000 in the BB.
UTG + 1 (a good player) raises to 1600. It folds to me. I call with AKs (spades).
Normally I might raise here being out of position, but a raise would have been to 5000 or so, which would have been 1/3 of my stack, and I wanted to see a flop before committing so much so relatively early in the tournament. It was the 6th level.
Flop comes 987 (two spades).
I bet out 5000 (pot is 4250). The other player who started with 16,000 stares me down for about 40 seconds and then pushes all in. I insta-call with two overs and the nut draw. He flips over TT and two blanks come on the turn and river.
So was my call correct? Should I have pushed after the flop with 4250 in the pot? Check raised the flop?
Well - let's just analyze the decision I was faced with . . .
There is 16,650 in the pot when he puts me all in. And I have 7400 left. I'm getting 2.25 to 1 pot odds. I had at least 9 outs with my flush draw. Those had to be good. Then of course with the extra 6 outs with two overs, I had 15 outs. So the call was correct. PokerStove says I had a 50.8% chance of winning the pot.
But what I'm trying to do is win pots without showdowns. What could I have done in this hand to not see a showdown? Be the last one to put in a raise. Oh well.
Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante
I have 14,000 in the BB.
UTG + 1 (a good player) raises to 1600. It folds to me. I call with AKs (spades).
Normally I might raise here being out of position, but a raise would have been to 5000 or so, which would have been 1/3 of my stack, and I wanted to see a flop before committing so much so relatively early in the tournament. It was the 6th level.
Flop comes 987 (two spades).
I bet out 5000 (pot is 4250). The other player who started with 16,000 stares me down for about 40 seconds and then pushes all in. I insta-call with two overs and the nut draw. He flips over TT and two blanks come on the turn and river.
So was my call correct? Should I have pushed after the flop with 4250 in the pot? Check raised the flop?
Well - let's just analyze the decision I was faced with . . .
There is 16,650 in the pot when he puts me all in. And I have 7400 left. I'm getting 2.25 to 1 pot odds. I had at least 9 outs with my flush draw. Those had to be good. Then of course with the extra 6 outs with two overs, I had 15 outs. So the call was correct. PokerStove says I had a 50.8% chance of winning the pot.
But what I'm trying to do is win pots without showdowns. What could I have done in this hand to not see a showdown? Be the last one to put in a raise. Oh well.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Weak pre-flop raise leads to tough beat
I haven't been playing much, but I promised this analysis to an opponent who made a bad play tonight. Here is the hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574181
The player is UTG with AKs with 710 in chips at 50/100. He min-raises. He puts in 29% of his stack before the flop. This is an obvious push situation. But at the very least, he should make a standard raise. With a super premium hand like KK or AA, maybe a min raise might be profitable, but not here. But the read of the table is also important. Perhaps an AKs min raise might be good if the player expected another player to come over the top before the flop. That was not going to happen at this table. The stacks were too short and the players weren't capable. Anyway, so he makes a min raise.
Getting 3.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an easy call for me with just about any two cards. The fact that I had a suited two gapper helped. But it also helped that I was familiar with the player and had a feeling I could outplay him. So I call. I didn't know where he was at. To be honest, I couldn't range him here. Thinking about it again, I would have put him on a strong hand, but I didn't do that here. because that's how he plays his premium hands. Mistake on my part.
So I flop a double belly buster. I practically put him all in. He goes into the tank and calls me with ace high. I hate the call. He has ace high and doesn't know where he's at. Here's the thing - if he's going to call with ACE HIGH after the flop, then he should absolutely have pushed before the flop when he his hand had more relative strength.
Next time, if a standard raise represents more than 30% of his stack, he needs to push. That's how you play short chipped poker. Be the aggressor. Be the first in the pot.
Like I read in my first poker book and didn't understand initially . . .
if you bet, you have two ways to win - he could fold or you could have the best hand.
If you call, you only have one way to win - having the best hand.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574181
The player is UTG with AKs with 710 in chips at 50/100. He min-raises. He puts in 29% of his stack before the flop. This is an obvious push situation. But at the very least, he should make a standard raise. With a super premium hand like KK or AA, maybe a min raise might be profitable, but not here. But the read of the table is also important. Perhaps an AKs min raise might be good if the player expected another player to come over the top before the flop. That was not going to happen at this table. The stacks were too short and the players weren't capable. Anyway, so he makes a min raise.
Getting 3.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an easy call for me with just about any two cards. The fact that I had a suited two gapper helped. But it also helped that I was familiar with the player and had a feeling I could outplay him. So I call. I didn't know where he was at. To be honest, I couldn't range him here. Thinking about it again, I would have put him on a strong hand, but I didn't do that here. because that's how he plays his premium hands. Mistake on my part.
So I flop a double belly buster. I practically put him all in. He goes into the tank and calls me with ace high. I hate the call. He has ace high and doesn't know where he's at. Here's the thing - if he's going to call with ACE HIGH after the flop, then he should absolutely have pushed before the flop when he his hand had more relative strength.
Next time, if a standard raise represents more than 30% of his stack, he needs to push. That's how you play short chipped poker. Be the aggressor. Be the first in the pot.
Like I read in my first poker book and didn't understand initially . . .
if you bet, you have two ways to win - he could fold or you could have the best hand.
If you call, you only have one way to win - having the best hand.
Monday, March 10, 2008
A VAPoker blowup
It's not unusual for me to make a play without thinking, but I made one last night that I had thought through - just not enough. The hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2245322
Several limpers and I see AQo in the SB. My thought is that I'm probably ahead here, but I don't want to play AQo out of position, so I raise to take the pot right there. But instead of a standard raise to 250 or 300 (given the existing limpers), I push all 29 big blinds in the middle. Who does that? I guess I do. I guess I'm unfortunate that I run into QQ in the BB and JJ UTG. I definitely did not put UTG on JJ. Obviously a limp UTG **could** be strong, but I had seen a bunch of EP limps from him and I wasn't worried.
So what else could I have done here? I could have limped. I could have made a more standard raise to 250. Either of those would be the better option. I'd lean toward the raise as it allows me to define my hand better when I'm raised by the BB. In fact, if it had been reraised by the BB and then it was called by UTG, I could have easily folded. Oh well. But the limp isn't so bad either. I'm OOP, and blinds are relatively small. There is no need to push so hard so early.
So there it is - another learning experience for VAPoker. Of note, this was the second table in a double shootout for the 2008 WSOP qualifier. I breezed through the first table, so perhaps I was a bit overconfident.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2245322
Several limpers and I see AQo in the SB. My thought is that I'm probably ahead here, but I don't want to play AQo out of position, so I raise to take the pot right there. But instead of a standard raise to 250 or 300 (given the existing limpers), I push all 29 big blinds in the middle. Who does that? I guess I do. I guess I'm unfortunate that I run into QQ in the BB and JJ UTG. I definitely did not put UTG on JJ. Obviously a limp UTG **could** be strong, but I had seen a bunch of EP limps from him and I wasn't worried.
So what else could I have done here? I could have limped. I could have made a more standard raise to 250. Either of those would be the better option. I'd lean toward the raise as it allows me to define my hand better when I'm raised by the BB. In fact, if it had been reraised by the BB and then it was called by UTG, I could have easily folded. Oh well. But the limp isn't so bad either. I'm OOP, and blinds are relatively small. There is no need to push so hard so early.
So there it is - another learning experience for VAPoker. Of note, this was the second table in a double shootout for the 2008 WSOP qualifier. I breezed through the first table, so perhaps I was a bit overconfident.
Monday, February 25, 2008
too much continuation betting
I haven't discussed it much, but I joined pokerxfactor in February. I think it has helped with my S&G bubble strategy. So far, I've only watched Sheets' beginner video on ICM and bubble strategy in S&Gs and I've half way through a Bax video of a $50 MTT. One thing I see Bax not doing is much continuation betting. Perhaps his stack is deeper so he sees less of a need. And maybe that's one thing I need to learn from - when it's appopriate to continuation bet and when it's not. With deep stacks I'm too aggressive still. I need to slow down. Once I continuation bet, I build a pot and then it becomes more juicy - but I should be able to get away from it after I raise with AQ and the flop comes ten high.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
thoughts on previous posting
So I've done some thinking on my previous post. I still haven't decided if the call was correct or not. I the end, I think it was. I needed to be 32% to win, and I was 42% to win as per PokerStove. Sometimes, you make the right decision and it doesn't work out, but the real question is - how could I have played that hand better? I think I should have pushed pre-flop. If I felt that my pre-flop raise was going to pot commit me before the flop if I'm reraised - then I should have push initially. Oh well - something to note for next time.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
4 handed in a small MTT - bad play here?
I played in a 10+1 on FTP with 49 players and finished 4th. I ran really good, winning coin flips and a couple 40/60s. But 4 handed with a lot of chips, I made this play - which I'm still thinking about.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561
I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.
There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.
So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."
So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561
I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.
There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.
So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."
So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)