Weak pre-flop raise leads to tough beat

I haven't been playing much, but I promised this analysis to an opponent who made a bad play tonight. Here is the hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574181

The player is UTG with AKs with 710 in chips at 50/100. He min-raises. He puts in 29% of his stack before the flop. This is an obvious push situation. But at the very least, he should make a standard raise. With a super premium hand like KK or AA, maybe a min raise might be profitable, but not here. But the read of the table is also important. Perhaps an AKs min raise might be good if the player expected another player to come over the top before the flop. That was not going to happen at this table. The stacks were too short and the players weren't capable. Anyway, so he makes a min raise.

Getting 3.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an easy call for me with just about any two cards. The fact that I had a suited two gapper helped. But it also helped that I was familiar with the player and had a feeling I could outplay him. So I call. I didn't know where he was at. To be honest, I couldn't range him here. Thinking about it again, I would have put him on a strong hand, but I didn't do that here. because that's how he plays his premium hands. Mistake on my part.

So I flop a double belly buster. I practically put him all in. He goes into the tank and calls me with ace high. I hate the call. He has ace high and doesn't know where he's at. Here's the thing - if he's going to call with ACE HIGH after the flop, then he should absolutely have pushed before the flop when he his hand had more relative strength.

Next time, if a standard raise represents more than 30% of his stack, he needs to push. That's how you play short chipped poker. Be the aggressor. Be the first in the pot.

Like I read in my first poker book and didn't understand initially . . .

if you bet, you have two ways to win - he could fold or you could have the best hand.

If you call, you only have one way to win - having the best hand.

A VAPoker blowup

It's not unusual for me to make a play without thinking, but I made one last night that I had thought through - just not enough. The hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2245322

Several limpers and I see AQo in the SB. My thought is that I'm probably ahead here, but I don't want to play AQo out of position, so I raise to take the pot right there. But instead of a standard raise to 250 or 300 (given the existing limpers), I push all 29 big blinds in the middle. Who does that? I guess I do. I guess I'm unfortunate that I run into QQ in the BB and JJ UTG. I definitely did not put UTG on JJ. Obviously a limp UTG **could** be strong, but I had seen a bunch of EP limps from him and I wasn't worried.

So what else could I have done here? I could have limped. I could have made a more standard raise to 250. Either of those would be the better option. I'd lean toward the raise as it allows me to define my hand better when I'm raised by the BB. In fact, if it had been reraised by the BB and then it was called by UTG, I could have easily folded. Oh well. But the limp isn't so bad either. I'm OOP, and blinds are relatively small. There is no need to push so hard so early.

So there it is - another learning experience for VAPoker. Of note, this was the second table in a double shootout for the 2008 WSOP qualifier. I breezed through the first table, so perhaps I was a bit overconfident.

too much continuation betting

I haven't discussed it much, but I joined pokerxfactor in February. I think it has helped with my S&G bubble strategy. So far, I've only watched Sheets' beginner video on ICM and bubble strategy in S&Gs and I've half way through a Bax video of a $50 MTT. One thing I see Bax not doing is much continuation betting. Perhaps his stack is deeper so he sees less of a need. And maybe that's one thing I need to learn from - when it's appopriate to continuation bet and when it's not. With deep stacks I'm too aggressive still. I need to slow down. Once I continuation bet, I build a pot and then it becomes more juicy - but I should be able to get away from it after I raise with AQ and the flop comes ten high.

thoughts on previous posting

So I've done some thinking on my previous post. I still haven't decided if the call was correct or not. I the end, I think it was. I needed to be 32% to win, and I was 42% to win as per PokerStove. Sometimes, you make the right decision and it doesn't work out, but the real question is - how could I have played that hand better? I think I should have pushed pre-flop. If I felt that my pre-flop raise was going to pot commit me before the flop if I'm reraised - then I should have push initially. Oh well - something to note for next time.

4 handed in a small MTT - bad play here?

I played in a 10+1 on FTP with 49 players and finished 4th. I ran really good, winning coin flips and a couple 40/60s. But 4 handed with a lot of chips, I made this play - which I'm still thinking about.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561

I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.

There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.

So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."

So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.

two recurring problems, how can these still exist?

I played on Full Tilt today and lost $43 in about 20 minutes. It's not about the amount, it's about how I played. I started at a 24+2 tourney that is technically out of my bankroll and then I made an awful play. I don't have the HH, but here is what happened.

At 20/40, Limp in EP, SB limps, I have AKs in the BB. I raise to 111 in the BB. Fold Call.
Check to me after a flop of AXX with two clubs. I bet 222. SB calls.
Turn is king of clubs. SB pushes all in on me and has me covered (we each have about 1600)
I insta-call?

SB turns over 76 of clubs. Frush - thanks for playing.

So two things happened here. One - I called too fast. What's the fucking hurry? Why do I not wait on this hand while I am playing for my tournament life? Take time and evaluate. It was not hard to see through this guy's play. This was a mental error on my part.

But I made this bad play for two reasons - I was an idiot and I was tired and sick and hungry. Stop playing when you're not in the mood. And then in frustration, I went to a $0.15 / $0.30 NL 6 handed table and lost the rest of the my money on FTP, $17. Still tired and frustrated and then made a fucking terrible play. You know the right plays - so only play when you mind is right and you can make good decisions.

problem solved?

I played three 6 handed 12+1s yesterday and won two and finished second in the other. There is no doubt I got lucky in spots, but I think that I figured out where my looseness was the problem. I was too involved too early. Example, I raise with AKo and get a caller. It is checked to me on the flop. I follow up with a continuation bet. I get a caller. And then I push again on the turn. At 10/20, I don't need to do the continuation bet. I have more play in there. The risk isn't worth the reward. These bastards will call you down with second pair. When the chips get short, that's when bluffing and looser play becomes more important. Here's a hand I played that I liked. I raised in LP, got two callers - and then when I got two checks, it was easy to represent an ace.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981177

I know it's not a complex play, but it's a play I can make at 25/50 that is something that I shouldn't do at 10/20.

Let's see if the trend continues.