the instacall

One thing I have to start eliminating is the instacall without the nuts. On this hand, I nearly instacalled the river bet. On the flop, I put him on an overpair, like 88 or something like that. But would 88 really shove on me on the river? You'd have to be a real donkey to do that. But here we are - an instacall with the worst hand. Why can't I think these things through?

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2800329

JPO4 - final hand

A week ago I played in a local radio show's poker tournament. It was held at the Borgata. The field was pretty tight - at least at the single table I played at. Most things were uneventful - until the final hand, which I'm still thinking about.

Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante

I have 14,000 in the BB.

UTG + 1 (a good player) raises to 1600. It folds to me. I call with AKs (spades).

Normally I might raise here being out of position, but a raise would have been to 5000 or so, which would have been 1/3 of my stack, and I wanted to see a flop before committing so much so relatively early in the tournament. It was the 6th level.

Flop comes 987 (two spades).

I bet out 5000 (pot is 4250). The other player who started with 16,000 stares me down for about 40 seconds and then pushes all in. I insta-call with two overs and the nut draw. He flips over TT and two blanks come on the turn and river.

So was my call correct? Should I have pushed after the flop with 4250 in the pot? Check raised the flop?

Well - let's just analyze the decision I was faced with . . .

There is 16,650 in the pot when he puts me all in. And I have 7400 left. I'm getting 2.25 to 1 pot odds. I had at least 9 outs with my flush draw. Those had to be good. Then of course with the extra 6 outs with two overs, I had 15 outs. So the call was correct. PokerStove says I had a 50.8% chance of winning the pot.

But what I'm trying to do is win pots without showdowns. What could I have done in this hand to not see a showdown? Be the last one to put in a raise. Oh well.

Weak pre-flop raise leads to tough beat

I haven't been playing much, but I promised this analysis to an opponent who made a bad play tonight. Here is the hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574181

The player is UTG with AKs with 710 in chips at 50/100. He min-raises. He puts in 29% of his stack before the flop. This is an obvious push situation. But at the very least, he should make a standard raise. With a super premium hand like KK or AA, maybe a min raise might be profitable, but not here. But the read of the table is also important. Perhaps an AKs min raise might be good if the player expected another player to come over the top before the flop. That was not going to happen at this table. The stacks were too short and the players weren't capable. Anyway, so he makes a min raise.

Getting 3.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an easy call for me with just about any two cards. The fact that I had a suited two gapper helped. But it also helped that I was familiar with the player and had a feeling I could outplay him. So I call. I didn't know where he was at. To be honest, I couldn't range him here. Thinking about it again, I would have put him on a strong hand, but I didn't do that here. because that's how he plays his premium hands. Mistake on my part.

So I flop a double belly buster. I practically put him all in. He goes into the tank and calls me with ace high. I hate the call. He has ace high and doesn't know where he's at. Here's the thing - if he's going to call with ACE HIGH after the flop, then he should absolutely have pushed before the flop when he his hand had more relative strength.

Next time, if a standard raise represents more than 30% of his stack, he needs to push. That's how you play short chipped poker. Be the aggressor. Be the first in the pot.

Like I read in my first poker book and didn't understand initially . . .

if you bet, you have two ways to win - he could fold or you could have the best hand.

If you call, you only have one way to win - having the best hand.

A VAPoker blowup

It's not unusual for me to make a play without thinking, but I made one last night that I had thought through - just not enough. The hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2245322

Several limpers and I see AQo in the SB. My thought is that I'm probably ahead here, but I don't want to play AQo out of position, so I raise to take the pot right there. But instead of a standard raise to 250 or 300 (given the existing limpers), I push all 29 big blinds in the middle. Who does that? I guess I do. I guess I'm unfortunate that I run into QQ in the BB and JJ UTG. I definitely did not put UTG on JJ. Obviously a limp UTG **could** be strong, but I had seen a bunch of EP limps from him and I wasn't worried.

So what else could I have done here? I could have limped. I could have made a more standard raise to 250. Either of those would be the better option. I'd lean toward the raise as it allows me to define my hand better when I'm raised by the BB. In fact, if it had been reraised by the BB and then it was called by UTG, I could have easily folded. Oh well. But the limp isn't so bad either. I'm OOP, and blinds are relatively small. There is no need to push so hard so early.

So there it is - another learning experience for VAPoker. Of note, this was the second table in a double shootout for the 2008 WSOP qualifier. I breezed through the first table, so perhaps I was a bit overconfident.

too much continuation betting

I haven't discussed it much, but I joined pokerxfactor in February. I think it has helped with my S&G bubble strategy. So far, I've only watched Sheets' beginner video on ICM and bubble strategy in S&Gs and I've half way through a Bax video of a $50 MTT. One thing I see Bax not doing is much continuation betting. Perhaps his stack is deeper so he sees less of a need. And maybe that's one thing I need to learn from - when it's appopriate to continuation bet and when it's not. With deep stacks I'm too aggressive still. I need to slow down. Once I continuation bet, I build a pot and then it becomes more juicy - but I should be able to get away from it after I raise with AQ and the flop comes ten high.

thoughts on previous posting

So I've done some thinking on my previous post. I still haven't decided if the call was correct or not. I the end, I think it was. I needed to be 32% to win, and I was 42% to win as per PokerStove. Sometimes, you make the right decision and it doesn't work out, but the real question is - how could I have played that hand better? I think I should have pushed pre-flop. If I felt that my pre-flop raise was going to pot commit me before the flop if I'm reraised - then I should have push initially. Oh well - something to note for next time.

4 handed in a small MTT - bad play here?

I played in a 10+1 on FTP with 49 players and finished 4th. I ran really good, winning coin flips and a couple 40/60s. But 4 handed with a lot of chips, I made this play - which I'm still thinking about.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561

I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.

There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.

So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."

So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.

two recurring problems, how can these still exist?

I played on Full Tilt today and lost $43 in about 20 minutes. It's not about the amount, it's about how I played. I started at a 24+2 tourney that is technically out of my bankroll and then I made an awful play. I don't have the HH, but here is what happened.

At 20/40, Limp in EP, SB limps, I have AKs in the BB. I raise to 111 in the BB. Fold Call.
Check to me after a flop of AXX with two clubs. I bet 222. SB calls.
Turn is king of clubs. SB pushes all in on me and has me covered (we each have about 1600)
I insta-call?

SB turns over 76 of clubs. Frush - thanks for playing.

So two things happened here. One - I called too fast. What's the fucking hurry? Why do I not wait on this hand while I am playing for my tournament life? Take time and evaluate. It was not hard to see through this guy's play. This was a mental error on my part.

But I made this bad play for two reasons - I was an idiot and I was tired and sick and hungry. Stop playing when you're not in the mood. And then in frustration, I went to a $0.15 / $0.30 NL 6 handed table and lost the rest of the my money on FTP, $17. Still tired and frustrated and then made a fucking terrible play. You know the right plays - so only play when you mind is right and you can make good decisions.

problem solved?

I played three 6 handed 12+1s yesterday and won two and finished second in the other. There is no doubt I got lucky in spots, but I think that I figured out where my looseness was the problem. I was too involved too early. Example, I raise with AKo and get a caller. It is checked to me on the flop. I follow up with a continuation bet. I get a caller. And then I push again on the turn. At 10/20, I don't need to do the continuation bet. I have more play in there. The risk isn't worth the reward. These bastards will call you down with second pair. When the chips get short, that's when bluffing and looser play becomes more important. Here's a hand I played that I liked. I raised in LP, got two callers - and then when I got two checks, it was easy to represent an ace.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981177

I know it's not a complex play, but it's a play I can make at 25/50 that is something that I shouldn't do at 10/20.

Let's see if the trend continues.

loose as a goose

I continue to run cold. All my posts have a recurring theme - play tighter. Why do I continue to play loosely? I expect the other players to think and react intelligently. But they don't. So I need to adjust. The irony is - my knowledge grows and grows, but my results are actually declining.

Playing so loosely is a leak. I have to fix it.

let your bluff go

Here's a hand from one of the 180 player tournaments . In the interest of playing within my bankroll, it was a $4+0.40. I didn't think the players were all that different from a $20+2 180 player. Anyway, I caught some cards and got a chip lead when we were down to two tables. Then I made an awful bluff.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1935124

I felt like QTo as strong enough to call with in the BB with the SB just trying to steal my blind. When the flop came 9 high and he bet into me, I'm not sure quite what I was thinking. I had been pushing the table around a lot and probably thought I'd continue by representing a hand on the turn. When a 9 came on the turn, I felt like I could represent a 9 with a raise. But then I get a call. An alarm bell should have been going off in my head for two reasons - 1) the SB was strong or at least he thought he was and 2) the SB was not going to lay his hand down. But he didn't come over the top of me on the turn, so I felt weakness. I didn't put him on a hand, just weakness. Feeling weakness and a check on the river, I bet into him. Well, he calls and turns over an overpair.

I already know that most of the players I play with can't lay down top pair - and probably never an overpair. I should have even been concerned about a 9. That call on the turn should be more of a signal to me. Oh well. I lost 3/4 of my chips and finished 14th after having the chip lead with 15 players left.

little play, but little turnaround

I haven't been playing much in the last month. I'm still having trouble beating inferior players. They are getting lucky. I've been listening to the Pocket 5s podcast. There are amazing numbers of people having consistent multi-table successes. It makes me want to rededicate myself AGAIN. I also heard about a concept where Annette_15 won a 180 player S&G without looking at her cards. Daniel Negraneau said that was good practice - presumably for reading and pouncing on weakness.

Here's a play I made today that I'm proud of:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1904725

This donkey made a bad raise leaving himself vulnerable, and I took advantage and came over the top of him. Moron calls me with 5 high. Obviously, I was not raising for value, but for taking advantage of the situation.

I'd really like to scrutinize my play more and evaluate the bad plays I am making and eliminate them. I think I have this style that has evolved some, but I'm not advancing much.

why I have been sucking lately

In the last 9 days, I am down $262.25. I'm trying to figure out why I'm on this bad run. I'd say it's 20% cards and 80% bad play.

I think I've turned into a losing, bad player. Believe it or not, I think it comes a lot from watching more poker on tv. Players are raising with marginal hands and calling with marginal hands to set up bluffs and make moves later. These things don't work at low limit tables. I can be semi-loose before the flop, but I have to be tighter after the flop. They WILL NOT lay down top pair or often second pair. A continuation bet, yes, bluff raise no. I also think a lot of this came from reading Paul Wasicka's blog. Same idea - over aggression before the flop, putting reads on people after the flop and trying to take pots away without the best hand. This does not work where I play.

So - how do I fix it?

Play fewer hands. Do not play loose aggressive. Play tight aggressive. Don't get bored and don't try to outplay people with marginal hands. Believe it or not, I should play LESS attention to whatever S&G I'm playing in. By watching the games, I'm getting bored and trying to beat the game irrespective of the cards. So that's the solution - PLAY TIGHTER. WAIT FOR THE CARDS.

Jennifear's thoughts on how to beat low limit S&G players

I'm taking a couple days off. I've had a small cold streak where I've lost $250 or so in a row, which is 50% of my Pokerstars bankroll. I'd say it's mostly bad play has been the reason. But the problem is that I'm giving the players too much credit. Too much credit for a hand, too much credit to think my smooth call on the flop is a danger sign. Instead of trying to outplay the weak players, I should be pushing them around with hands and folding shit.

Raise or fold. No calling. - that should be my mantra.

With that being said, here are Jennifear's tips on adjusting play to beat low limit S&Gs:

If they call too much, you bet more chips with a hand, and don't bluff much.
If they fold too much, you bet more often and bluff more.
If they chase bad draws, you bet more, so that they pay more.
If they call allin reraises preflop with ace-ten, you shove allin with ace-king!
If they play two pair like the nuts, you shove allin with a set.
If they play top pair like it's the nuts, you play your top two HARD!


This is taken from here:
http://www.pocketfives.com/7B79D94A-D0A2-4E99-83E6-CD2894BDA205.aspx

playing better poker

I've been reading Paul Wasicka's blog:

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/blog/blogdetail.asp?aid=81&bcatid=4

I looked for things on Wasicka after I heard Matusow saw that he was impressed by some of the things he had read about Wasicka, how Wasicka knows he has to play perfect poker and how he's been running lucky. What I've been reading is fascinating. Reading his analysis of hands during the LA Poker Classic is great learning material. He plays close attention to other players' styles and behavior and will outplay them in select spots.

But back to me . . .

My focus is waining. I'm making sub-optimal plays. I also need to be tighter. Same stuff that I've been saying. Play tighter, less bluffing, more value betting. I do need to be in a better mood when playing, though. I can't underestimate that aspect. I played two S&Gs yesterday, lost in them both and then played too fast in another and busted out after 13 hands. I was not playing my best - I was tired and frustrated. Maybe I can play better today.

my own interpretation of ICM

I re-read Jennifear's article on ICM. If you're concentrating on the math, it seems difficult, but it's basically just what Dan Harrington called "first in vigorish"

When you're on the bubble, push a lot with just about any two cards. Don't call without premium hands. The way she talks about a call that may have positive cEV (positive chip expected value) but not necessarily positive $EV (positive equity expected value) is interesting. It makes you awfully tight in terms of calling when on the bubble. If it ever becomes an all-in fest for all players as this theory prescribes, then you have to loosen your calling requirements. Of course each situation is different and it seems most of the donkeys I play with don't do this.

I found myself at a 12+1 6 handed STT on Stars today and tried it out twice. One worked, one didn't (actually had A9o and got called by KQs and lost). On the other, I never got called.

My basic philosophy has always been - get your money in good, that's all you can do.

Being a knowledgeable player, I know the quandry I'm in when someone pushes in to me and I have A6s. I could be dominated. I could be 55/45. This posting has been a little but of stream of consciousness.

One of the things I have trouble with is the luck factor. I know that when I'm pushing with 92, I'm only going to get called by a better hand. And it kills me and goes against my own theory
(get your money in good) - but I guess that's the thing, it's a +$ev value if not necessarily a +cEV play. But I guess you have to get called for it to be a -cEV play.

I guess I need to adjust my thinking. People who have thought this through more than I have are coming up with this conclusion, so I don't see why I can't change my line of thinking to incorporate it into my game.

dealing with the luck factor

I can play this game, I can beat these players. I'm beginning to think my real advantage is style. I play a better style - kind of a semi-loose aggressive style, but not moronic like most of the players I play with at these levels. But here's the issue - the damn luck factor. I play my ass off only to get outdrawn by a donkey who doesn't know what he's doing. I guess that's the nature of S&Gs.

So to wind down, I'm taking a stab at 6 handed $.10/.25 Pot Limit Hi/Lo Omaha.

where is my focus?

I didn't even read the book (I only read its description on Amazon), but I know what it's talking about. "Your Worst Poker Enemy" is about how your own emotions and thoughts make you bad. I know I'm better than everyone I play against, but I make sub-optimal plays OVER AND OVER because I see others doing it and benefiting from it. And for some reason, I think that because I'm better than the others around me, the pots will just come to me. It's not true. I have to be patient and outplay these donkeys. I'm a little tired and I know that lowers my level of play.

I play too fast. I'm not disciplined enough. I know to stop multi-tabling and get back to one table and make it so that +EV decisions are the only decisions I am making.

what the hell is ICM?

I haven't played a lot lately, but in some reading I've done, I've come across a concept called ICM (The Independent Chip Model). It seems I'm late to the party on this. From the beginning of what I've read, it's about making decisions based on math and position relative to the money. I read through someone named Jennifear's $55 STT which had some interesting plays and thoughts:

http://www.pocketfives.com/0DBF774F-1FC9-4349-825D-9BE7645FCF20.aspx

I want to do some reading on ICM and see if it can help me short handed STT bubble game.

I also want to focus more when playing - my play was not tight today, too many loose plays. I'm better than this.

against donkeys with a flush draw, don't always be so aggressive

Here is the third hand of this S&G. Jesus, I played this badly. I don't mind the call on the button with KQs. I flop a flush draw with two overs. I don't hate the call on the flop. I easily have pot odds on the chance that I hit my draw. Could I get much value if I did hit? Maybe, maybe not. But the turn is where this hand went wrong. Two players check to me, and I think I can take this pot away on the turn, so I bet big. One caller. Why didn't I take the free card? I didn't spend enough time thinking about it, but my general thought was that I'm building the pot if I hit and I also might take the pot away. He checks to me again on the river. Now, I'm dead. Surrender? I could have, but the pot was so big. I didn't really think about this too much. I didn't really put him on a hand. Looking back, the check call and relatively weak play puts him on QJ to me. And considering the call on the turn, I doubt I could have gotten him to lay it down on the river. He told me later he had JJ, which is a bad play on the river to me, he should have bet into me. Either way, the real fault is mine.

This was a weak player. In a step 3 PCA qualifier, it's pretty safe to assume that I'm better than everyone at my table, but I didn't follow my own rules on beating weak players. Play closer to the vest, bluff less, and push with the nuts. And yes, after I blew this hand, I finished 9th on a 9 person table.

The hand:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1608327