why I have been sucking lately

In the last 9 days, I am down $262.25. I'm trying to figure out why I'm on this bad run. I'd say it's 20% cards and 80% bad play.

I think I've turned into a losing, bad player. Believe it or not, I think it comes a lot from watching more poker on tv. Players are raising with marginal hands and calling with marginal hands to set up bluffs and make moves later. These things don't work at low limit tables. I can be semi-loose before the flop, but I have to be tighter after the flop. They WILL NOT lay down top pair or often second pair. A continuation bet, yes, bluff raise no. I also think a lot of this came from reading Paul Wasicka's blog. Same idea - over aggression before the flop, putting reads on people after the flop and trying to take pots away without the best hand. This does not work where I play.

So - how do I fix it?

Play fewer hands. Do not play loose aggressive. Play tight aggressive. Don't get bored and don't try to outplay people with marginal hands. Believe it or not, I should play LESS attention to whatever S&G I'm playing in. By watching the games, I'm getting bored and trying to beat the game irrespective of the cards. So that's the solution - PLAY TIGHTER. WAIT FOR THE CARDS.

Jennifear's thoughts on how to beat low limit S&G players

I'm taking a couple days off. I've had a small cold streak where I've lost $250 or so in a row, which is 50% of my Pokerstars bankroll. I'd say it's mostly bad play has been the reason. But the problem is that I'm giving the players too much credit. Too much credit for a hand, too much credit to think my smooth call on the flop is a danger sign. Instead of trying to outplay the weak players, I should be pushing them around with hands and folding shit.

Raise or fold. No calling. - that should be my mantra.

With that being said, here are Jennifear's tips on adjusting play to beat low limit S&Gs:

If they call too much, you bet more chips with a hand, and don't bluff much.
If they fold too much, you bet more often and bluff more.
If they chase bad draws, you bet more, so that they pay more.
If they call allin reraises preflop with ace-ten, you shove allin with ace-king!
If they play two pair like the nuts, you shove allin with a set.
If they play top pair like it's the nuts, you play your top two HARD!


This is taken from here:
http://www.pocketfives.com/7B79D94A-D0A2-4E99-83E6-CD2894BDA205.aspx

playing better poker

I've been reading Paul Wasicka's blog:

http://www.bluffmagazine.com/blog/blogdetail.asp?aid=81&bcatid=4

I looked for things on Wasicka after I heard Matusow saw that he was impressed by some of the things he had read about Wasicka, how Wasicka knows he has to play perfect poker and how he's been running lucky. What I've been reading is fascinating. Reading his analysis of hands during the LA Poker Classic is great learning material. He plays close attention to other players' styles and behavior and will outplay them in select spots.

But back to me . . .

My focus is waining. I'm making sub-optimal plays. I also need to be tighter. Same stuff that I've been saying. Play tighter, less bluffing, more value betting. I do need to be in a better mood when playing, though. I can't underestimate that aspect. I played two S&Gs yesterday, lost in them both and then played too fast in another and busted out after 13 hands. I was not playing my best - I was tired and frustrated. Maybe I can play better today.

my own interpretation of ICM

I re-read Jennifear's article on ICM. If you're concentrating on the math, it seems difficult, but it's basically just what Dan Harrington called "first in vigorish"

When you're on the bubble, push a lot with just about any two cards. Don't call without premium hands. The way she talks about a call that may have positive cEV (positive chip expected value) but not necessarily positive $EV (positive equity expected value) is interesting. It makes you awfully tight in terms of calling when on the bubble. If it ever becomes an all-in fest for all players as this theory prescribes, then you have to loosen your calling requirements. Of course each situation is different and it seems most of the donkeys I play with don't do this.

I found myself at a 12+1 6 handed STT on Stars today and tried it out twice. One worked, one didn't (actually had A9o and got called by KQs and lost). On the other, I never got called.

My basic philosophy has always been - get your money in good, that's all you can do.

Being a knowledgeable player, I know the quandry I'm in when someone pushes in to me and I have A6s. I could be dominated. I could be 55/45. This posting has been a little but of stream of consciousness.

One of the things I have trouble with is the luck factor. I know that when I'm pushing with 92, I'm only going to get called by a better hand. And it kills me and goes against my own theory
(get your money in good) - but I guess that's the thing, it's a +$ev value if not necessarily a +cEV play. But I guess you have to get called for it to be a -cEV play.

I guess I need to adjust my thinking. People who have thought this through more than I have are coming up with this conclusion, so I don't see why I can't change my line of thinking to incorporate it into my game.

dealing with the luck factor

I can play this game, I can beat these players. I'm beginning to think my real advantage is style. I play a better style - kind of a semi-loose aggressive style, but not moronic like most of the players I play with at these levels. But here's the issue - the damn luck factor. I play my ass off only to get outdrawn by a donkey who doesn't know what he's doing. I guess that's the nature of S&Gs.

So to wind down, I'm taking a stab at 6 handed $.10/.25 Pot Limit Hi/Lo Omaha.

where is my focus?

I didn't even read the book (I only read its description on Amazon), but I know what it's talking about. "Your Worst Poker Enemy" is about how your own emotions and thoughts make you bad. I know I'm better than everyone I play against, but I make sub-optimal plays OVER AND OVER because I see others doing it and benefiting from it. And for some reason, I think that because I'm better than the others around me, the pots will just come to me. It's not true. I have to be patient and outplay these donkeys. I'm a little tired and I know that lowers my level of play.

I play too fast. I'm not disciplined enough. I know to stop multi-tabling and get back to one table and make it so that +EV decisions are the only decisions I am making.

what the hell is ICM?

I haven't played a lot lately, but in some reading I've done, I've come across a concept called ICM (The Independent Chip Model). It seems I'm late to the party on this. From the beginning of what I've read, it's about making decisions based on math and position relative to the money. I read through someone named Jennifear's $55 STT which had some interesting plays and thoughts:

http://www.pocketfives.com/0DBF774F-1FC9-4349-825D-9BE7645FCF20.aspx

I want to do some reading on ICM and see if it can help me short handed STT bubble game.

I also want to focus more when playing - my play was not tight today, too many loose plays. I'm better than this.