Monday, February 25, 2008

too much continuation betting

I haven't discussed it much, but I joined pokerxfactor in February. I think it has helped with my S&G bubble strategy. So far, I've only watched Sheets' beginner video on ICM and bubble strategy in S&Gs and I've half way through a Bax video of a $50 MTT. One thing I see Bax not doing is much continuation betting. Perhaps his stack is deeper so he sees less of a need. And maybe that's one thing I need to learn from - when it's appopriate to continuation bet and when it's not. With deep stacks I'm too aggressive still. I need to slow down. Once I continuation bet, I build a pot and then it becomes more juicy - but I should be able to get away from it after I raise with AQ and the flop comes ten high.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

thoughts on previous posting

So I've done some thinking on my previous post. I still haven't decided if the call was correct or not. I the end, I think it was. I needed to be 32% to win, and I was 42% to win as per PokerStove. Sometimes, you make the right decision and it doesn't work out, but the real question is - how could I have played that hand better? I think I should have pushed pre-flop. If I felt that my pre-flop raise was going to pot commit me before the flop if I'm reraised - then I should have push initially. Oh well - something to note for next time.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

4 handed in a small MTT - bad play here?

I played in a 10+1 on FTP with 49 players and finished 4th. I ran really good, winning coin flips and a couple 40/60s. But 4 handed with a lot of chips, I made this play - which I'm still thinking about.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561

I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.

There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.

So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."

So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

two recurring problems, how can these still exist?

I played on Full Tilt today and lost $43 in about 20 minutes. It's not about the amount, it's about how I played. I started at a 24+2 tourney that is technically out of my bankroll and then I made an awful play. I don't have the HH, but here is what happened.

At 20/40, Limp in EP, SB limps, I have AKs in the BB. I raise to 111 in the BB. Fold Call.
Check to me after a flop of AXX with two clubs. I bet 222. SB calls.
Turn is king of clubs. SB pushes all in on me and has me covered (we each have about 1600)
I insta-call?

SB turns over 76 of clubs. Frush - thanks for playing.

So two things happened here. One - I called too fast. What's the fucking hurry? Why do I not wait on this hand while I am playing for my tournament life? Take time and evaluate. It was not hard to see through this guy's play. This was a mental error on my part.

But I made this bad play for two reasons - I was an idiot and I was tired and sick and hungry. Stop playing when you're not in the mood. And then in frustration, I went to a $0.15 / $0.30 NL 6 handed table and lost the rest of the my money on FTP, $17. Still tired and frustrated and then made a fucking terrible play. You know the right plays - so only play when you mind is right and you can make good decisions.