the instacall

One thing I have to start eliminating is the instacall without the nuts. On this hand, I nearly instacalled the river bet. On the flop, I put him on an overpair, like 88 or something like that. But would 88 really shove on me on the river? You'd have to be a real donkey to do that. But here we are - an instacall with the worst hand. Why can't I think these things through?

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2800329

JPO4 - final hand

A week ago I played in a local radio show's poker tournament. It was held at the Borgata. The field was pretty tight - at least at the single table I played at. Most things were uneventful - until the final hand, which I'm still thinking about.

Blinds are 300/600 with a 75 ante

I have 14,000 in the BB.

UTG + 1 (a good player) raises to 1600. It folds to me. I call with AKs (spades).

Normally I might raise here being out of position, but a raise would have been to 5000 or so, which would have been 1/3 of my stack, and I wanted to see a flop before committing so much so relatively early in the tournament. It was the 6th level.

Flop comes 987 (two spades).

I bet out 5000 (pot is 4250). The other player who started with 16,000 stares me down for about 40 seconds and then pushes all in. I insta-call with two overs and the nut draw. He flips over TT and two blanks come on the turn and river.

So was my call correct? Should I have pushed after the flop with 4250 in the pot? Check raised the flop?

Well - let's just analyze the decision I was faced with . . .

There is 16,650 in the pot when he puts me all in. And I have 7400 left. I'm getting 2.25 to 1 pot odds. I had at least 9 outs with my flush draw. Those had to be good. Then of course with the extra 6 outs with two overs, I had 15 outs. So the call was correct. PokerStove says I had a 50.8% chance of winning the pot.

But what I'm trying to do is win pots without showdowns. What could I have done in this hand to not see a showdown? Be the last one to put in a raise. Oh well.

Weak pre-flop raise leads to tough beat

I haven't been playing much, but I promised this analysis to an opponent who made a bad play tonight. Here is the hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2574181

The player is UTG with AKs with 710 in chips at 50/100. He min-raises. He puts in 29% of his stack before the flop. This is an obvious push situation. But at the very least, he should make a standard raise. With a super premium hand like KK or AA, maybe a min raise might be profitable, but not here. But the read of the table is also important. Perhaps an AKs min raise might be good if the player expected another player to come over the top before the flop. That was not going to happen at this table. The stacks were too short and the players weren't capable. Anyway, so he makes a min raise.

Getting 3.5 to 1 pot odds, this is an easy call for me with just about any two cards. The fact that I had a suited two gapper helped. But it also helped that I was familiar with the player and had a feeling I could outplay him. So I call. I didn't know where he was at. To be honest, I couldn't range him here. Thinking about it again, I would have put him on a strong hand, but I didn't do that here. because that's how he plays his premium hands. Mistake on my part.

So I flop a double belly buster. I practically put him all in. He goes into the tank and calls me with ace high. I hate the call. He has ace high and doesn't know where he's at. Here's the thing - if he's going to call with ACE HIGH after the flop, then he should absolutely have pushed before the flop when he his hand had more relative strength.

Next time, if a standard raise represents more than 30% of his stack, he needs to push. That's how you play short chipped poker. Be the aggressor. Be the first in the pot.

Like I read in my first poker book and didn't understand initially . . .

if you bet, you have two ways to win - he could fold or you could have the best hand.

If you call, you only have one way to win - having the best hand.

A VAPoker blowup

It's not unusual for me to make a play without thinking, but I made one last night that I had thought through - just not enough. The hand:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2245322

Several limpers and I see AQo in the SB. My thought is that I'm probably ahead here, but I don't want to play AQo out of position, so I raise to take the pot right there. But instead of a standard raise to 250 or 300 (given the existing limpers), I push all 29 big blinds in the middle. Who does that? I guess I do. I guess I'm unfortunate that I run into QQ in the BB and JJ UTG. I definitely did not put UTG on JJ. Obviously a limp UTG **could** be strong, but I had seen a bunch of EP limps from him and I wasn't worried.

So what else could I have done here? I could have limped. I could have made a more standard raise to 250. Either of those would be the better option. I'd lean toward the raise as it allows me to define my hand better when I'm raised by the BB. In fact, if it had been reraised by the BB and then it was called by UTG, I could have easily folded. Oh well. But the limp isn't so bad either. I'm OOP, and blinds are relatively small. There is no need to push so hard so early.

So there it is - another learning experience for VAPoker. Of note, this was the second table in a double shootout for the 2008 WSOP qualifier. I breezed through the first table, so perhaps I was a bit overconfident.

too much continuation betting

I haven't discussed it much, but I joined pokerxfactor in February. I think it has helped with my S&G bubble strategy. So far, I've only watched Sheets' beginner video on ICM and bubble strategy in S&Gs and I've half way through a Bax video of a $50 MTT. One thing I see Bax not doing is much continuation betting. Perhaps his stack is deeper so he sees less of a need. And maybe that's one thing I need to learn from - when it's appopriate to continuation bet and when it's not. With deep stacks I'm too aggressive still. I need to slow down. Once I continuation bet, I build a pot and then it becomes more juicy - but I should be able to get away from it after I raise with AQ and the flop comes ten high.

thoughts on previous posting

So I've done some thinking on my previous post. I still haven't decided if the call was correct or not. I the end, I think it was. I needed to be 32% to win, and I was 42% to win as per PokerStove. Sometimes, you make the right decision and it doesn't work out, but the real question is - how could I have played that hand better? I think I should have pushed pre-flop. If I felt that my pre-flop raise was going to pot commit me before the flop if I'm reraised - then I should have push initially. Oh well - something to note for next time.

4 handed in a small MTT - bad play here?

I played in a 10+1 on FTP with 49 players and finished 4th. I ran really good, winning coin flips and a couple 40/60s. But 4 handed with a lot of chips, I made this play - which I'm still thinking about.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?2142561

I'm the button. I get a fold and make a blind stealing raise to 6400. The SB pushes all in for 19,860. Immediately, I put the guy on a weakish hand. I had been bullying this player for a while and it felt like he finally wanted to take a stand. But then I start doing the math.

There is 29,280 in the pot after the SB's raise. And it's 13,460 for me to call. I'm getting 2.17 to 1 pot odds. I'm not doing all the calculations at the time of course, but knowing that I'm getting those odds and that I have Q9o, I need to be 32% (2.17 / 3.17) to win to call. As per PokerStove, I have the right odds for any unpaired cards that don't have me dominated. Plus, I could be against 33 or some other crap that donkeys like this play.

So that's what went through my head. Well - more specifically - it was "I'm getting about 2 to 1 - the math says to call here."

So what else could I have done? Fold of course. If I fold, I have about 37,500 and he has about 28,000. What I'm not doing here is the ICM analysis to see how this play affects my equity. Of course, I could also have not raised. I really bullying the table and I felt like the SB and BB were both pretty weak tight. That will take some work. But could I have found a better spot to get much chips in? Especially where I'm the aggressor. Oh well. I need to do some more thinking about this.

two recurring problems, how can these still exist?

I played on Full Tilt today and lost $43 in about 20 minutes. It's not about the amount, it's about how I played. I started at a 24+2 tourney that is technically out of my bankroll and then I made an awful play. I don't have the HH, but here is what happened.

At 20/40, Limp in EP, SB limps, I have AKs in the BB. I raise to 111 in the BB. Fold Call.
Check to me after a flop of AXX with two clubs. I bet 222. SB calls.
Turn is king of clubs. SB pushes all in on me and has me covered (we each have about 1600)
I insta-call?

SB turns over 76 of clubs. Frush - thanks for playing.

So two things happened here. One - I called too fast. What's the fucking hurry? Why do I not wait on this hand while I am playing for my tournament life? Take time and evaluate. It was not hard to see through this guy's play. This was a mental error on my part.

But I made this bad play for two reasons - I was an idiot and I was tired and sick and hungry. Stop playing when you're not in the mood. And then in frustration, I went to a $0.15 / $0.30 NL 6 handed table and lost the rest of the my money on FTP, $17. Still tired and frustrated and then made a fucking terrible play. You know the right plays - so only play when you mind is right and you can make good decisions.

problem solved?

I played three 6 handed 12+1s yesterday and won two and finished second in the other. There is no doubt I got lucky in spots, but I think that I figured out where my looseness was the problem. I was too involved too early. Example, I raise with AKo and get a caller. It is checked to me on the flop. I follow up with a continuation bet. I get a caller. And then I push again on the turn. At 10/20, I don't need to do the continuation bet. I have more play in there. The risk isn't worth the reward. These bastards will call you down with second pair. When the chips get short, that's when bluffing and looser play becomes more important. Here's a hand I played that I liked. I raised in LP, got two callers - and then when I got two checks, it was easy to represent an ace.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1981177

I know it's not a complex play, but it's a play I can make at 25/50 that is something that I shouldn't do at 10/20.

Let's see if the trend continues.

loose as a goose

I continue to run cold. All my posts have a recurring theme - play tighter. Why do I continue to play loosely? I expect the other players to think and react intelligently. But they don't. So I need to adjust. The irony is - my knowledge grows and grows, but my results are actually declining.

Playing so loosely is a leak. I have to fix it.

let your bluff go

Here's a hand from one of the 180 player tournaments . In the interest of playing within my bankroll, it was a $4+0.40. I didn't think the players were all that different from a $20+2 180 player. Anyway, I caught some cards and got a chip lead when we were down to two tables. Then I made an awful bluff.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1935124

I felt like QTo as strong enough to call with in the BB with the SB just trying to steal my blind. When the flop came 9 high and he bet into me, I'm not sure quite what I was thinking. I had been pushing the table around a lot and probably thought I'd continue by representing a hand on the turn. When a 9 came on the turn, I felt like I could represent a 9 with a raise. But then I get a call. An alarm bell should have been going off in my head for two reasons - 1) the SB was strong or at least he thought he was and 2) the SB was not going to lay his hand down. But he didn't come over the top of me on the turn, so I felt weakness. I didn't put him on a hand, just weakness. Feeling weakness and a check on the river, I bet into him. Well, he calls and turns over an overpair.

I already know that most of the players I play with can't lay down top pair - and probably never an overpair. I should have even been concerned about a 9. That call on the turn should be more of a signal to me. Oh well. I lost 3/4 of my chips and finished 14th after having the chip lead with 15 players left.

little play, but little turnaround

I haven't been playing much in the last month. I'm still having trouble beating inferior players. They are getting lucky. I've been listening to the Pocket 5s podcast. There are amazing numbers of people having consistent multi-table successes. It makes me want to rededicate myself AGAIN. I also heard about a concept where Annette_15 won a 180 player S&G without looking at her cards. Daniel Negraneau said that was good practice - presumably for reading and pouncing on weakness.

Here's a play I made today that I'm proud of:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1904725

This donkey made a bad raise leaving himself vulnerable, and I took advantage and came over the top of him. Moron calls me with 5 high. Obviously, I was not raising for value, but for taking advantage of the situation.

I'd really like to scrutinize my play more and evaluate the bad plays I am making and eliminate them. I think I have this style that has evolved some, but I'm not advancing much.